Double Take on POT

This is a beautiful chart.

Double #1: July 2006, $27 --> April 2007, $54
Double #2: April 2007, $54 --> October 2007, $108
Double #3: October 2007, $108 --> April 2008, $216

Could POT double a fourth time? I think so. That would put it at $432. It's due for a pullback to the lower orange uptrend line. If that line holds, I'll be getting long. If it doesn't hold, the party is over.

THE TAKE AWAY: Just because a stock has doubled doesn't mean it's too late to get in. Maybe it will double again, and then double again after that.

QQQQuality

QQQQ is the ETF that tracks the NASDAQ 100 index. As soon as this bad boy breaks through the downtrend line, it's time to get long. The 200DMA is overhead resistance, although it is flattening out. The 50DMA will be support from below. I think we'll see an upside breakout within the next two weeks.

Time to Short Gold

Back on April 1st, I commented on GLD getting pommeled, when it was down 4% on the day and trading under $87. I had the following game plan: "Sell any strength. People are dumping this hard. I don't think it will find any supstantial support until it falls into the $75-$80 range."

GLD actually made an impressive bounce during the first two weeks of April, making it all the way up to $93. For a few days there, I began to think my bearish call on GLD was incorrect; but last week GLD fell all the way back down to $87. If only I had followed my own game plan and sold into the strength. Nevertheless, I am still bearish. The 50DMA is turning negative, and will weigh heavily on the stock.

The New Gameplan:
Continue to sell any strength. If GLD closes below $87, sell that too. Conservative Stop: $91.50. Riskier Stop: $94.

MRVL Intraday Breakout

At about 1:20PM, MRVL broke through resistance that had been holding since 11AM this morning. A volume surge accompanied the move. It shot up and then consolidated just under $12.90 for about an hour, then around 2:30PM it broke out a second time. It is currently trading around $13.

Textbook Intraday Breakdown in RIMM

Today is like Bizarro World for RIMM (see yesterday's post).

1) Falls through support.
2) Small pullback on light volume, back to former support line, where it finds resistance.
3) Huge wave of selling.

You could have gotten an easy 2% out of this one.

Textbook Intraday Breakout in RIMM

1) Breaks through resistance.
2) Small pullback on light volume, back to the former resistance line, where it finds support.
3) Huge wave of buying.

You could have gotten an easy 2% out of this one.

MRVL Dominates $12

MRVL up over 7% today on BIG volume. I think I might try to get long this bad boy. If it pulls back to $12, that's a gift. W00t.

Boeing Flying High

Sorry, I truly can't help myself when it comes to title puns.

Boeing reported earnings today, and the street apparently liked what they heard - check out the volume. I like what I see on this chart. BA has been beaten down since October, and has now escaped the downtrend channel. It put in a good base around $74. The 50DMA is beginning to turn upwards, and should support the stock.

THE GAMEPLAN:
Try to pick up some BA in the 79-80 range. Stop out below 74 or 75.

CREE Gets PWND

CREE is getting pwnd today on bad earnings. It's down 18% on HUGE volume - everyone's bailing. The chart actually looked somewhat bullish on Monday - the stock had just resolved a triangle formation to the upside, powering higher about 10% last week - although on weak volume.

LESSON LEARNED: If your stock runs up 10% into earnings, it's probably a good idea to take profits. The run up shows that everyone's speculating that the earnings will be great, and if they end up being less than great, the stock will suffer.

ZRAN

Zoran Corp (ZRAN) reported earnings last night - they must have been good because the stock is up 15% today. You'll notice on the chart that ZRAN tried to test the "No Man's Land" this morning - apparently it met resistance and retreated. The stock has been unable to penetrate this zone ($14.50 to $15.00) since late January. If ZRAN can close above $15, I would be bullish. The 50DMA should provide some support from below as the stock tries to bust through. If you're anxious to get in, stop out below $13.50. Otherwise I would wait and see if ZRAN has the balls to take out the resistance.

MRVL Breaks Free

MRVL was up 5.84% today on healthy volume. Looks like it has finally broken out of a 3 month symmetrical triangle. Today it stopped short of $12, which has been resistance for a while now.

THE GAMEPLAN:
You have a few choices here. You can buy some now and stop out under the low last week ($10.25). Consider a tighter stop if you please, perhaps a close under the 50DMA.

If you're a bit more conservative, wait until MRVL breaks through, and finds support at, $12.

MRVL Stuck in a Triangle

A few weeks ago I posted a chart of MRVL in a triangle. MRVL started to break out to the downside last week, but managed to recover (see "BEAR TRAP" on the chart). Today it made a run at the top of the triangle, but couldn't break through. The noose is tightening - we will soon witness the outcome.

DOW Chart

We broke through some powerful resistance (12,700) today; volume is higher; bullishness is eeking into the market. The next hour (3-4pm) will be interesting - we'll see if today's gains will survive.

The next area of resistance is 12,975 - a little more than 100 points away. We've got the October downtrend line and the 200DMA there, ready to go to war. However, the 2003 uptrend line and the 50DMA are joining forces below. I bet the DOW will get pinched into this triangle, and then head higher.

So what's the GAMEPLAN? Let's see if the DOW can break through and find support at the 200DMA.

FedEx, Continued ...

The price action on the daily chart confirms the bullish setup in FedEx. In March it broke through the downtrend line - that blue one there on the chart that has been making FDX its bitch since last summer. Last week FDX got scared when it met with the 200DMA, however, the 50DMA has curved up under the stock and should act as support. I think it's time to buy - worst case scenario is you lose 12%. See the GAMEPLAN in the post below.

20 Years of FedEx

Recently I have been studying ultra-long-term charts - with anywhere from 5 to 40 years of data. Here's a 20 year, monthly chart of FedEx (FDX). I've noticed that all of the patterns found on shorter term charts (daily and intraday) can also be found on these monthly charts.

As the chart shows, FDX has been trending higher since 1990. Although the trend is clearly up, there were many periods along the way, some as long as 4 years, where FDX churned sideways without making any new highs. Imagine the incredible patience required to hold a stock for 4 years without even one new high. FDX has gone from $10 to $100 over roughly 17 years. That's a CAGR of about 14% - not too shabby. Those with patience have been adequately compensated.

So what's the trade? You'll notice FCX has found support at the orange trendline for the past three months. If you look back in time, you'll also notice that every single time the stock has touched the orange trendline has been a great time to buy. Also, FDX traded huge volume in January, which could be a marker of the bottom.

THE GAMEPLAN:

Buy some FDX. If it drops below the March low ($82.50), get out. That's a 12% drop from the current price, so size your position accordingly. Otherwise we'll just stay on the train, or the truck, rather, and enjoy the 14% CAGR.

Mosaic - PWNIN N00bs

MOS made a new high today, breaking above a high it set on February 26. Last Friday at broke through a traingle formation. Check out the huge volume in the last three sessions. Enticing. Let's see if it can hold on to the new highs.

FDX - I'm Likin' It

BULLISH:

Just broke through the downtrend line that's been dominating for the last 9 months.
50DMA now sloping up.
Long-term trendline, that has been in place since the 1980's, held and now the stock is bouncing.

GAMEPLAN:
FDX is extremely overbought. Hopefully we'll get a pullback, then it's time to get LONG. Stop out below $90.

FXI: Xinhua China 25 Index, ETF

The China trade has corrected 40% from the highs set last November. I think enough is enough. FXI is now bouncing off an uptrend line that has been in place for over 2 years.

BULLISH ACTION:
Closed above 50DMA, let's see if it can hold.
Closed above downtrend line.
The 2 year trendline held.

GAMEPLAN:
Start to "nibble" on a LONG position. Add to the position if it can make a higher pivot high (close above $155). Stop out below $120 (new lows).

Not All That Glitters is Gold (Sorry for that)

The only thing glittery about this GLD chart is how much it sucks. It was probably a "fun" day for anyone who was long Gold, which inspired me to mark "WHEEE!!" on the chart. It actually had a respectable bounce in the morning, but meandered lower into the close.

Is it oversold? Yes. Could it be more oversold? Yes. So what's the game plan?

GAMEPLAN:
Sell any strength. People are dumping this hard. I don't think it will find any supstantial support until it falls into the $75-$80 range.

AAPL, The Big Tease

AAPL broke down through a descending triangle formation, only to reverse and move higher. Should have gotten Long as it broke through that descending orange line. Very bullish close - closed on the highs with big volume.

Next stop: $160? This thing is extended but price, like hips, don't lie.

BHI Daily

BULLISH ACTION:

Breaking through the downtrend line that began last October.
Breaking through shorter-term resistance.
Made a higher low, about to make a higher high (>$72).
Climactic selling in late January probably marked the bottom.
50-DMA no longer sloping down, may be supportive.

GAME PLAN:
Throw on a position if it can close above $72. Expect resistance at $75. Stop out below $63-64.

BHI BREAKOUT

BHI broke out of an ascending triangle early this morning and never looked back. Would have been good for over 2%. Next, I'll post the Daily chart, which shows some bullish action. Might be time to jump in for a longer-term trade.

BIDU DOMINATES

Check out BIDU up 14% on big volume today. It provided a nice entry at around 11AM this morning, then another around 3PM. Talk about some good day trading potential.

ProphetCharts: TXT

Check out the chart. If this thing can make a close above $58, it would be bullish for a longer-term trade (over a month long). Short-term (on a 2 to 5 day timeframe) it is overbought and will probably pull back. Looks like it has already dropped below $57.70, consider ringing the register- CACHING! CHING!

-ply the donkey with a whip, rock over london