Monday, June 30, 2008
Merck Looking Good
MRK is starting to look good here. It is breaking through the downtrend line, although it has not yet been able to close above the 50DMA. You can get long and stop out below $34.50. Good risk/reward here.
Monday, June 23, 2008
Cut the Losers
Cut the losers. Let the winners ride. Never let a winning trade turn into a losing trade.
I have had to exit four trades this year as a result of winning trades turning against me. In FXI I was up 13.5% at one point, but bailed at my break-even point as it reversed direction. The same thing happened to me in DD, PCU, and QQQQ, shown in the charts below. All four stocks are currently trading below my sell price.



I have had to exit four trades this year as a result of winning trades turning against me. In FXI I was up 13.5% at one point, but bailed at my break-even point as it reversed direction. The same thing happened to me in DD, PCU, and QQQQ, shown in the charts below. All four stocks are currently trading below my sell price.



NUE in a Triangle
Nucor Steel is forming a nice triangle on the daily chart. It should resolve in the next few days - I think it's a nice setup to play either way. My initial bias is that it will break to the upside.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Nasdaq Broken
Here's a chart of the Q's.
The March uptrend is broken. The November downtrend reigns supreme. Support at $48 is broken. Today we closed below the 200DMA and the 50DMA. Not looking good.
I bought 50 shares of QQQQ at $48.50 in my Roth account last month. I think it may be time to bail on a small loss. This thing is oversold - hopefully we'll see a bounce and I can sell on some strength.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
RIMM Explodes in Last 30 Minutes of Trading
At about 3:30pm some big volume came into RIMM and sent it flying higher - it shot from $130.50 to $134.50. Nice.
I need to develop a way to actively scan the market for opportunities such as this. I'm hoping thinkorswim will add some features to their software to make this possible.
Monday, June 2, 2008
FSLR in the DANGER ZONE
Check out the price action in FSLR since its late 2006 IPO. $30 to $300 - NOT TOO SHABBA! So what's the next move? $300 to $3000? Uhhh - not so fast.
FSLR has been in a very well defined uptrend since February 2007. Today it closed right on the line. If it makes one or two closes below the line, things could get ugly. The next few sessions will be critical - I'll be watching it closely.
Nasdaq QQQQ at a Crossroads
The Bearish:
The November downtrend is still intact. It failed at the trendline two weeks ago, and then again last Friday.
The Bullish:
The 50DMA is sloping upward from below and will probably cross back above the 200DMA soon.
The 200DMA supported QQQQ several times during May. It is now sloping upward slightly.
The March uptrend is still intact.
What to look for:
Soon we'll either break to the upside above the downtrend line, or break to the downside through the March uptrend and through the 200DMA. I got long at $48.50. If QQQQ closes below $48, I'm outta here.
MOS Going Higher
MOS is breaking out of a bull flag to the upside. I think I'm going to buy 10 shares and stop out below $113.50. I'm going to ride it until the 9 month trendline breaks, so this should be a long term hold if all goes well.
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