Monday, October 1, 2007

DOW Market Carpet

After the market close on Tuesday, September 18th, the day the FED cut rates, I said the Dow Jones Industrial average would "blow by its previous record of 14,000 in the next few weeks." Today that happened, 10 trading days later. The DJIA closed today at 14087, 2.5% higher than the close on the 18th.

Big whoop - I called a 2.5% move. The problem is, I didn't put my money where my mouth was. I should have gotten long the Dow. How does one get long the Dow? - Diamonds! That's right, buy Diamonds!

Diamonds is actually an ETF that tracks the performance of the DJIA, symbol DIA. My exclamation to "buy Diamonds!" was merely an attempt to engage my female audience (namely my girlfriend, the only person who reads this blog).

Getting to my point, I could have bought some DIA and captured the upside I predicted in the Dow.

Better yet, I could have picked a few of the best stocks within the DJIA and bought those. The market carpet below, courtesy of StockCharts.com, shows the top 5 and bottom 5 performers since the close on the day of the FED rate cut. The top performers, Boeing, Alcoa, Honeywell, United Technologies, and Verizon, were all strong names at the time and would have been easy picks. The bottom 5 performers, Home Depot, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, American Express, and Wal-Suck, were all stinkers at the time and would have been obvious stocks to avoid.

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